What does 2026 have in store on the stock market?

Sacha Marienberg, many banks and financial analysts are expecting a strong year on the stock market in 2026, are you?
Absolutely. The conditions are very favourable.

Why is that?
Firstly, the US – the driving force of the global economy. American companies in particular have achieved impressive profits this year. This trend looks set to continue in 2026. Another key factor is the interest rate cuts the US Federal Reserve is expected to make. Such cuts would be favourable to investments and boost the stock markets.

Will Donald Trump's tariff policy not have any influence on matters?
The worlds of politics and business have accepted that the tariffs on trade with the US will remain in place. At least now the conditions are clear. That's why I don't believe the tariffs will have a significant negative effect on the economy.

What are the key political factors?
Here, too, we must first look to the US: by cutting red tape and reducing taxes, the Trump administration is easing the burden on companies and boosting consumption. In Europe, billions are being invested in public infrastructure, especially in Germany. This looks set to stimulate the economy.

How can Swiss investors benefit from any stock market rally?
A sharp rise in equity prices shouldn't really be an incentive to invest in the financial markets. There is a risk of decisions being made in too much haste. The key thing is investing in the stock market in general terms. In the US, 55% of households own shares. In Switzerland, only 17.6%. This means only a minority have benefited from the gains in recent years.

What disruptive factors can we expect in 2026 – both geopolitically and economically?
We believe the biggest disruptive factor is the ongoing formation of blocs between the US, on one hand, and China on the other. Europe must reposition itself in the battle for raw materials, securing supply chains and geopolitical influence.

The price of gold hit new record highs in 2025. Will this trend continue?
The central banks are primarily responsible for this increase. They are buying gold on a large scale as a reserve currency – in response to the freezing of Russian assets as part of Western sanctions. Countries such as China and India are adopting this approach as they want to remain capable of acting. Demand for gold remains strong, even among small-scale investors.

So should we still buy gold now?
Yes, but only as part of a diversified investment portfolio. We recommend that our clients take up a gold allocation of 3% to 5% to diversify their portfolio.

The policy rate of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is currently 0%. Is there a risk of negative interest rates?
The policy rate is likely to remain at zero for the time being. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has repeatedly stated that although he is not ruling out the reintroduction of negative interest rates in an emergency situation, he considers the hurdles of doing so to be high.

Warnings of an AI bubble and falling tech prices are growing. How great is the risk?
The valuation of companies in the field of AI is actually very high. However, there can be no talk of a bubble phase at the moment.

However, the rapid development of AI infrastructure and the high valuations bring back bad memories of the dotcom crisis around 2001 ...
That comparison is misleading. When the dotcom bubble burst, it included companies that had never earned any money. In contrast, today's AI companies are highly profitable, as the example of Nvidia underlines. Forecasts indicate that they will continue to generate high profits in 2026. However, the economic viability of the enormous AI investments remains to be seen.

The aggressive US tariff policy caused turmoil on the capital markets in 2025. Will 2026 see a more settled environment return?
Trump remains unpredictable. But a global trade war seems to have been averted for the time being. The US still has the upper hand, except for with China. The US market is simply too important for companies.

The latest tariff deal stipulates that Swiss companies must invest 200 billion dollars in the US, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry. What risks do you foresee here?
The US market is by far the most important and most profitable for Roche and Novartis. The investments will enable them to protect their US market share, but at the expense of well-paid jobs in Switzerland.

Which sectors may prove attractive on the stock market in 2026?
I see great upturn potential in Swiss equities, even if the export economy is being hampered by the strong Swiss franc. Swiss companies operating in or which are related to the construction sector are likely to benefit from the large-scale infrastructure projects in Europe. Switzerland also has numerous global market leaders in niche markets with a high-margin services business model.

Last but not least, what's next for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin?
Bitcoin recently fell by almost 30% in value after hitting a record high. Similar fluctuations can be expected in the future too. Demand for Bitcoin is generated by a combination of dwindling confidence in the conventional monetary system and pure speculation.